This Thursday, a Paris court will decide whether Marine Le Pen can stand for France’s next presidential election, potentially ending her ambition after a second trial on the misuse of European parliamentary funds.
Marine Le Pen, the 57‑year‑old leader of the National Rally (RN), is currently the nation’s most‑positioned presidential front‑runner. Latest opinion polls place her above all other candidates, but the appeal could silence her if her five‑year ban from public office is confirmed. The judges are under intense scrutiny because the stakes are only higher than any other judicial decision in France.
The first trial—held in March 2025—found Le Pen had knowingly set up a scheme where RN staff posed as EU parliamentary assistants in Brussels and Strasbourg to siphon European Union funds. She was sentenced to two years, to be served at home with an electronic tag, and—crucially—to be disqualified from office for five years, an operation already enforced without suspension pending appeal.
If the court follows the initial verdict, Le Pen will be barred from running, opening the door for her younger alienated club mate, Jordan Bardella. The 30‑year‑old is poised to become RN’s presidential candidate and could be a radical shift in style and age for the party.
A more complex scenario would involve the court granting a narrower ineligibility period—say two years—midway into the ban. That would allow Le Pen to resume campaigning before the first round of the election on 18 April 2027, but would still impose an electronic tag, which she says would make candidacy impossible.
In the event the verdict records her guilty but allows her to run, the national parties might consider an appeal to France’s highest court, the Cour de Cassation, which could once again extend her ban or impose a new one within the next year.
Whether the court chooses to hand her a full disqualification or to opt for a lesser sentence remains unknown. The implications reach beyond the individual, touching on the future of the National Rally and the political spectrum in France.
