In brief
On Friday, Fitch Ratings shifted France’s long‑term IDR outlook from stable to negative, maintaining its A+ rating. The agency warned that France’s debt trajectory will converge toward a 124 % debt‑to‑GDP ratio by 2028, with a projected 6.4 % deficit in 2027. France’s GDP slipped 0.1 % in Q3 2026 and growth forecasts fell to 0.5 % in 2026 and 0.9 % in 2027.
Fitch Ratings announced on Friday that it has revised France’s long‑term issuer default rating (IDR) outlook to negative from stable, while affirming the nation’s A+ rating, Xinhua reported from Paris. The change follows a review of France’s growth prospects, borrowing costs and fiscal stance that has weakened the country’s debt dynamics.
Xinhua noted that the negative outlook reflects weaker economic growth, higher borrowing costs and a widening budget deficit since Fitch’s August 2026 review. The report added that persistent political fragmentation and a challenging social environment have made sustained fiscal consolidation difficult.
The agency now projects France’s public debt‑to‑GDP ratio to rise from 115.7 % in 2025 to roughly 124 % by 2028, up from its earlier 122.7 % forecast. It also highlighted that a large share of public spending is politically difficult to cut, while France’s already high tax burden leaves little room for additional revenue. The French government’s late‑September budget projections now point to a deficit of 6.4 % of GDP in 2027, versus the earlier 5.9 % forecast.
Fitch cut its real GDP growth estimates to 0.5 % in 2026 and 0.9 % in 2027, down from the prior projections of 0.8 % and 1.1 %. The agency cited weaker economic data in the first half of 2026 and noted that France’s GDP contracted 0.1 % in the third quarter, as preliminary data from the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies showed. The figure, the report said, underscored downside risks to the growth outlook.
Despite the negative outlook, the rating remains supported by France’s large, wealthy and diversified economy, strong institutions, its membership in the euro area and a resilient banking sector, Xinhua added. Fitch argued that these factors continue to underlie the confidence in France’s A+ rating level.